Goal
Make a random outcome part of a decision rather than just a surprise.
Scenario and materials
An expedition must send fragile cargo today or wait for another weather window. Today’s forecast gives known probabilities for three outcomes. Design the cost of waiting, rewards and losses, then compare the choices of a cautious player and a risk-taking player.
Event cards
Constraints
- Probabilities, rewards and losses are visible to the player.
- A ten-card deck can represent the outcomes.
- Waiting has a cost; it does not grant a free retry.
Steps
- Build a deck with the intended proportions of outcomes.
- Calculate the expected result of sending: sum each outcome’s result multiplied by its probability.
- Compare sending and waiting at two resource levels. Play through a few outcomes and note separately that this small sample does not establish balance.
Deliverable
The deck, a table of probabilities and consequences, an expected-result calculation and two example decisions.
Check your work
- The probabilities sum to one.
- The player knows what they can gain and lose.
- Expected gain and the risk of losing the last resources are considered separately.
Reflect
Why might a player choose the option with a lower expected reward?
Sources and further reading
Thematic inspiration: Challenges for Game Designers by Brenda Brathwaite and Ian Schreiber. These scenarios, constraints and checks are independently written around broad game-design learning topics. This is not a translation or a sequential retelling of the book exercises.