---
key: practice/forecast-and-surprise
type: practice
id: forecast-and-surprise
lang: en
title: Forecast and surprise
summary: Give the player ways to prepare for a random event.
updatedAt: '2026-10-20'
status: active
url: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/practice/forecast-and-surprise/'
jsonUrl: >-
  https://gamemechanics.pro/api/v1/knowledge/en/practice/forecast-and-surprise.json
markdownUrl: >-
  https://gamemechanics.pro/content/knowledge/en/practice/forecast-and-surprise.md
aliases: []
tags:
  - Chance and balance
sourceIds:
  - source-3e6c21889ae768e0
  - source-6f794a271cd60b9c
sources:
  - id: source-3e6c21889ae768e0
    title: 'Challenges for Game Designers: author website'
    url: 'https://designgames.wordpress.com/'
    verifiedAt: null
  - id: source-6f794a271cd60b9c
    title: 'Challenges for Game Designers: table of contents'
    url: 'https://designgames.wordpress.com/toc/'
    verifiedAt: null
relations:
  - type: uses
    direction: outgoing
    label: Sources in the selection
    key: resource/challenges-for-game-designers
    title: Challenges for Game Designers
    url: >-
      https://gamemechanics.pro/en/resources/#resource-challenges-for-game-designers
    jsonUrl: >-
      https://gamemechanics.pro/api/v1/knowledge/en/resource/challenges-for-game-designers.json
    markdownUrl: >-
      https://gamemechanics.pro/content/knowledge/en/resource/challenges-for-game-designers.md
placements:
  - title: In the original collection
    url: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/en/practice/#forecast-and-surprise'
supersededBy: []
attributes:
  topic: chance
  level: intermediate
  minutes: 75
endsAt: null
provenance: >-
  Thematic inspiration: Challenges for Game Designers by Brenda Brathwaite and
  Ian Schreiber. These scenarios, constraints and checks are independently
  written around broad game-design learning topics. This is not a translation or
  a sequential retelling of the book exercises.
license: CC-BY-4.0
codeLicense: MIT
attribution: gamemechanics.pro contributors
---
# Forecast and surprise

id: forecast-and-surprise
type: practice
key: practice/forecast-and-surprise
lang: en
status: active
url: https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/practice/forecast-and-surprise/

Give the player ways to prepare for a random event.

## Goal

Give the player ways to prepare for a random event.

## Scenario and materials

A caravan chooses a road between settlements. In version A, danger is determined only after the route is chosen. In version B, part of the forecast is visible beforehand and preparation costs a resource. Compare the decisions that become possible with a forecast.

Cards and a play log

## Constraints

- Keep routes, rewards and the event set identical in both versions.
- Advance information is incomplete but useful.
- Preparation reduces a specific loss and has a clear cost.

## Steps

1. Describe both versions and the preparation options.
2. Compare them using the same event order.
3. Record decisions before events and results afterwards. Adjust the cost of preparation if players always take it or always ignore it.

## Deliverable

Two rule sets, a decision log and an explanation of the limits of your conclusions.

## Check your work

- The forecast allows a change of action before the event.
- Preparation does not automatically cancel every consequence.
- Do not present a few games as statistical evidence of balance.

## Reflect

Is the player learning to prepare better or simply memorising the event sequence?

## Connected materials

- Sources in the selection: [Challenges for Game Designers](https://gamemechanics.pro/en/resources/#resource-challenges-for-game-designers) (key: resource/challenges-for-game-designers)

## Sources and provenance

Thematic inspiration: Challenges for Game Designers by Brenda Brathwaite and Ian Schreiber. These scenarios, constraints and checks are independently written around broad game-design learning topics. This is not a translation or a sequential retelling of the book exercises.

- [Challenges for Game Designers: author website](https://designgames.wordpress.com/) (id: source-3e6c21889ae768e0)
- [Challenges for Game Designers: table of contents](https://designgames.wordpress.com/toc/) (id: source-6f794a271cd60b9c)

CC-BY-4.0 · gamemechanics.pro contributors