---
key: mechanic/education--family-21
type: mechanic
id: education--family-21
lang: en
title: 'Randomness, probability and risk'
summary: >-
  The learner predicts random outcomes, compares risks and revises a decision
  after seeing the result.
updatedAt: '2026-10-22'
status: active
url: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/mechanic/education--family-21/'
jsonUrl: >-
  https://gamemechanics.pro/api/v1/knowledge/en/mechanic/education--family-21.json
markdownUrl: >-
  https://gamemechanics.pro/content/knowledge/en/mechanic/education--family-21.md
aliases:
  - Probability and risk
tags:
  - Educational games
  - 'Quantity, investigation and systems'
sourceIds:
  - source-127368020a891d54
sources:
  - id: source-127368020a891d54
    title: Dicey Dungeons
    url: 'https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/'
    verifiedAt: null
relations: []
placements:
  - catalogId: education
    id: family-21
    title: Educational games
    url: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/en/mechanics/education/#family-21'
    categoryIds:
      - systems
supersededBy: []
attributes:
  preview:
    updatedAt: '2026-10-22'
    title: Probability and risk
    description: >-
      The learner predicts random outcomes, compares risks and revises a
      decision after seeing the result.
    image:
      src: images/mechanics/broad-dicey-dungeons-00.webp
      width: 1440
      height: 810
      game: Dicey Dungeons
      sourceUrl: 'https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/'
      originalUrl: >-
        https://shared.akamai.steamstatic.com/store_item_assets/steam/apps/861540/ss_34c9e63f73c668bcde5dd4671e944c09e1c169b5.1920x1080.jpg?t=1761845135
      credit: Terry Cavanagh / Terry Cavanagh
      rights: © Terry Cavanagh / Terry Cavanagh. All rights reserved.
      caption: A rolled value is assigned to an eligible ability
      alt: A rolled value is assigned to an eligible ability
      markers:
        - x: 48
          'y': 34
          label: Duplicate accepts a die with a value of at least four
    tips:
      - Distinguish an outcome’s probability from luck on a single attempt.
    examples:
      - title: Dicey Dungeons
        url: 'https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/'
endsAt: null
provenance: >-
  Educational reference expanded from all 64 families and 749 variants of the
  original children-education taxonomy, with original editorial additions dated
  2026-10-20. Sources support specific methods and examples, not the entire
  classification or its effectiveness.
license: CC-BY-4.0
codeLicense: MIT
attribution: gamemechanics.pro contributors
catalogKey: catalog/education
---
# Randomness, probability and risk

id: education--family-21
type: mechanic
key: mechanic/education--family-21
lang: en
status: active
url: https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/mechanic/education--family-21/

The learner predicts random outcomes, compares risks and revises a decision after seeing the result.

## At a glance

![A rolled value is assigned to an eligible ability](https://gamemechanics.pro/images/mechanics/broad-dicey-dungeons-00.webp)

[Dicey Dungeons](https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/) · © Terry Cavanagh / Terry Cavanagh. All rights reserved.

1. Duplicate accepts a die with a value of at least four

- Distinguish an outcome’s probability from luck on a single attempt.

- [Dicey Dungeons](https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/)

## How it works

Predict random outcomes

## Variants

### Variants

<a id="family-21-branch-1"></a>

- Predict random outcomes <a id="family-21-variant-1"></a>
- Compare probabilities <a id="family-21-variant-2"></a>
- Distinguish possible and impossible <a id="family-21-variant-3"></a>
- Run repeated trials <a id="family-21-variant-4"></a>
- Compare frequencies with expectations <a id="family-21-variant-5"></a>
- Create a fair random choice <a id="family-21-variant-6"></a>
- Explore sampling with and without replacement <a id="family-21-variant-7"></a>
- Choose risk or certainty <a id="family-21-variant-8"></a>
- Update forecasts with new data <a id="family-21-variant-9"></a>
- Enumerate outcomes <a id="family-21-variant-10"></a>
- Distinguish independent and dependent events <a id="family-21-variant-11"></a>

## Design example

Change a bag's contents and test how often a target color appears.

## Context and limits

A mechanic map for games with explicit learning goals, from first encounters with a topic to professional practice. It covers children, teenagers and adults; choose subject, difficulty, context and controls for the learner. Player actions, subject content, instructional support and assessment are distinct layers. Scores and game completion alone do not establish mastery or skill transfer.

## Connected materials


## Sources and provenance

Educational reference expanded from all 64 families and 749 variants of the original children-education taxonomy, with original editorial additions dated 2026-10-20. Sources support specific methods and examples, not the entire classification or its effectiveness.

- [Dicey Dungeons](https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/) (id: source-127368020a891d54)

CC-BY-4.0 · gamemechanics.pro contributors