---
key: lens/schell-035
type: lens
id: schell-035
lang: en
title: Expected Value
summary: Compare an outcome's likelihood with the value of its result.
updatedAt: '2026-10-10'
status: active
url: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/lens/schell-035/'
jsonUrl: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/api/v1/knowledge/en/lens/schell-035.json'
markdownUrl: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/content/knowledge/en/lens/schell-035.md'
aliases:
  - Expected Value
  - '35'
tags:
  - Rules and systems
sourceIds:
  - source-a5287443699910bb
  - source-f546a7168effffbb
sources:
  - id: source-a5287443699910bb
    title: 'Schell: 113 second-edition lenses'
    url: 'https://schellgames.com/art-of-game-design'
    verifiedAt: null
  - id: source-f546a7168effffbb
    title: Expected Value
    url: 'https://deck.artofgamedesign.com/'
    verifiedAt: null
relations: []
placements:
  - title: In the original collection
    url: 'https://gamemechanics.pro/en/lenses/#schell-035'
supersededBy: []
attributes:
  number: '35'
  theme: rules
  author: Jesse Schell
  originalTitle: Expected Value
  referenceUrl: 'https://deck.artofgamedesign.com/'
endsAt: null
provenance: >-
  Original editorial explanations and review questions based on the
  user-selected Schell notes and attributed primary references. External
  concepts and source material retain their rights.
license: CC-BY-4.0
codeLicense: MIT
attribution: gamemechanics.pro contributors
---
# Expected Value

id: schell-035
type: lens
key: lens/schell-035
lang: en
status: active
url: https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/lens/schell-035/

Compare an outcome's likelihood with the value of its result.

## Principle

Compare an outcome's likelihood with the value of its result.

## Review questions

- What are the average gains and losses of each risky decision?
- Does that calculation match the value perceived by the player?

## Attribution and limits

Jesse Schell · Schell: 113 second-edition lenses

The concise explanations and review questions are original gamemechanics.pro wording. This is an independent reference, not a translation of the cards or a substitute for the book. Names, concepts and external material remain their authors’ work.

## Connected materials


## Sources and provenance

Original editorial explanations and review questions based on the user-selected Schell notes and attributed primary references. External concepts and source material retain their rights.

- [Schell: 113 second-edition lenses](https://schellgames.com/art-of-game-design) (id: source-a5287443699910bb)
- [Expected Value](https://deck.artofgamedesign.com/) (id: source-f546a7168effffbb)

CC-BY-4.0 · gamemechanics.pro contributors