{"schemaVersion":1,"record":{"key":"mechanic/education--family-21","type":"mechanic","id":"education--family-21","lang":"en","title":"Randomness, probability and risk","summary":"The learner predicts random outcomes, compares risks and revises a decision after seeing the result.","updatedAt":"2026-10-22","status":"active","url":"https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/mechanic/education--family-21/","jsonUrl":"https://gamemechanics.pro/api/v1/knowledge/en/mechanic/education--family-21.json","markdownUrl":"https://gamemechanics.pro/content/knowledge/en/mechanic/education--family-21.md","aliases":["Probability and risk"],"tags":["Educational games","Quantity, investigation and systems"],"sourceIds":["source-127368020a891d54"],"sources":[{"id":"source-127368020a891d54","title":"Dicey Dungeons","url":"https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/","verifiedAt":null}],"sections":[{"id":"principle","title":"How it works","body":"Predict random outcomes"},{"id":"variants","title":"Variants","body":"### Variants\n\n<a id=\"family-21-branch-1\"></a>\n\n- Predict random outcomes <a id=\"family-21-variant-1\"></a>\n- Compare probabilities <a id=\"family-21-variant-2\"></a>\n- Distinguish possible and impossible <a id=\"family-21-variant-3\"></a>\n- Run repeated trials <a id=\"family-21-variant-4\"></a>\n- Compare frequencies with expectations <a id=\"family-21-variant-5\"></a>\n- Create a fair random choice <a id=\"family-21-variant-6\"></a>\n- Explore sampling with and without replacement <a id=\"family-21-variant-7\"></a>\n- Choose risk or certainty <a id=\"family-21-variant-8\"></a>\n- Update forecasts with new data <a id=\"family-21-variant-9\"></a>\n- Enumerate outcomes <a id=\"family-21-variant-10\"></a>\n- Distinguish independent and dependent events <a id=\"family-21-variant-11\"></a>"},{"id":"example","title":"Design example","body":"Change a bag's contents and test how often a target color appears."},{"id":"context","title":"Context and limits","body":"A mechanic map for games with explicit learning goals, from first encounters with a topic to professional practice. It covers children, teenagers and adults; choose subject, difficulty, context and controls for the learner. Player actions, subject content, instructional support and assessment are distinct layers. Scores and game completion alone do not establish mastery or skill transfer."}],"relations":[],"placements":[{"catalogId":"education","id":"family-21","title":"Educational games","url":"https://gamemechanics.pro/en/mechanics/education/#family-21","categoryIds":["systems"]}],"supersededBy":[],"attributes":{"preview":{"updatedAt":"2026-10-22","title":"Probability and risk","description":"The learner predicts random outcomes, compares risks and revises a decision after seeing the result.","image":{"src":"images/mechanics/broad-dicey-dungeons-00.webp","width":1440,"height":810,"game":"Dicey Dungeons","sourceUrl":"https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/","originalUrl":"https://shared.akamai.steamstatic.com/store_item_assets/steam/apps/861540/ss_34c9e63f73c668bcde5dd4671e944c09e1c169b5.1920x1080.jpg?t=1761845135","credit":"Terry Cavanagh / Terry Cavanagh","rights":"© Terry Cavanagh / Terry Cavanagh. All rights reserved.","caption":"A rolled value is assigned to an eligible ability","alt":"A rolled value is assigned to an eligible ability","markers":[{"x":48,"y":34,"label":"Duplicate accepts a die with a value of at least four"}]},"tips":["Distinguish an outcome’s probability from luck on a single attempt."],"examples":[{"title":"Dicey Dungeons","url":"https://store.steampowered.com/app/861540/"}]}},"endsAt":null,"provenance":"Educational reference expanded from all 64 families and 749 variants of the original children-education taxonomy, with original editorial additions dated 2026-10-20. Sources support specific methods and examples, not the entire classification or its effectiveness.","license":"CC-BY-4.0","codeLicense":"MIT","attribution":"gamemechanics.pro contributors","catalogKey":"catalog/education"}}