{"schemaVersion":1,"record":{"key":"mechanic/detective--family-18","type":"mechanic","id":"detective--family-18","lang":"en","title":"Competing hypotheses","summary":"The player proposes several explanations and looks for an observation that can distinguish between them.","updatedAt":"2026-10-22","status":"active","url":"https://gamemechanics.pro/en/knowledge/mechanic/detective--family-18/","jsonUrl":"https://gamemechanics.pro/api/v1/knowledge/en/mechanic/detective--family-18.json","markdownUrl":"https://gamemechanics.pro/content/knowledge/en/mechanic/detective--family-18.md","aliases":[],"tags":["Detective games","Hypotheses and reasoning tests"],"sourceIds":["source-c071af1c88e59913"],"sources":[{"id":"source-c071af1c88e59913","title":"The Case of the Golden Idol","url":"https://store.steampowered.com/app/1677770/","verifiedAt":null}],"sections":[{"id":"principle","title":"How it works","body":"The player proposes several explanations and looks for an observation that can distinguish between them."},{"id":"variants","title":"Variants","body":"### Variants\n\n<a id=\"family-18-branch-1\"></a>\n\n- Alternative interpretations: give one fact several explanations and keep them as alternatives. <a id=\"family-18-variant-1\"></a>\n- Hypothesis prediction: state what additional evidence should exist if a hypothesis is correct. <a id=\"family-18-variant-2\"></a>\n- Updating confidence: weaken or strengthen a hypothesis after obtaining new independent information. <a id=\"family-18-variant-3\"></a>"},{"id":"example","title":"Design example","body":"A pass may have been lost by its owner or taken by someone else. Checking its last use distinguishes those hypotheses."},{"id":"context","title":"Context and limits","body":"A working map of detective design: 32 families and 96 variants. The core loop is to find information, form a hypothesis, test it and explain a conclusion. Answer formats, hints and investigation structure are treated separately. Families overlap, design examples are hypothetical, and released-game examples cite primary sources without revealing case solutions."}],"relations":[],"placements":[{"catalogId":"detective","id":"family-18","title":"Detective games","url":"https://gamemechanics.pro/en/mechanics/detective/#family-18","categoryIds":["reasoning"]}],"supersededBy":[],"attributes":{"preview":{"updatedAt":"2026-10-22","title":"Competing hypotheses","description":"The player proposes several explanations and looks for an observation that can distinguish between them.","image":{"src":"images/mechanics/adventure-golden-idol-07.webp","width":1357,"height":763,"game":"The Case of the Golden Idol","sourceUrl":"https://store.steampowered.com/app/1677770/","originalUrl":"https://shared.akamai.steamstatic.com/store_item_assets/steam/apps/1677770/ss_649570093b41419b15482dd6667b0a74c4a8cfb2.1920x1080.jpg?t=1786374001","credit":"Color Gray Games / Playstack","rights":"Game imagery © its respective rights holders. Publisher-distributed Steam screenshot; all rights reserved. Excluded from MIT and CC BY 4.0.","caption":"Names and actions complete an explanation of the incident","alt":"Names and actions complete an explanation of the incident","markers":[{"x":27,"y":46,"label":"A testable account of events"},{"x":78,"y":49,"label":"People who must be identified"}]},"tips":["Let players seek evidence that distinguishes competing explanations."],"examples":[{"title":"The Case of the Golden Idol","url":"https://store.steampowered.com/app/1677770/"}]}},"endsAt":null,"provenance":"Original editorial taxonomy authored for gamemechanics.pro on 2026-10-19. Primary developer and publisher sources support specific released-game examples, not the whole classification; design examples are hypothetical.","license":"CC-BY-4.0","codeLicense":"MIT","attribution":"gamemechanics.pro contributors","catalogKey":"catalog/detective"}}